Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
On April 9th, what will the 7-day moving average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
0
Ṁ1k
resolved Apr 2
ResolvedN/A
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 2
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 2.5
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 3
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 3.5
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 4
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 4.5
Resolved
N/A
x ≥ 5

Question

On April 9th, what will the 7-day moving average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?

Resolution Criteria

Let x be the seven day moving average for the number of ships passing the Strait of Hormuz for April 9th 2026. Using IMP PortWatch as the official source, each market above will resolve to YES if the stated in equality is true and will resolve to NO otherwise. For example, if x = 4, then the market for x ≥ 4 would resolve to YES, the market for x ≥ 4.5 would resolve to NO etc.

If the data for April 9th are not released by end of day April 30th, I will resolve the market to NA.

Related Markets

Interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Market context
Shipping
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]
3% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of July? [Polymarket]
-3% 1d15% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]
-16% 1d21% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]
1% chance
On July 26th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
-10% 1d33% chance
Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?
-6% 1d31% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
-4% 1d75% chance
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket]
1% chance
Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?
15% chance