Ding vs. Gukesh - 2024 World Chess Championship prop bets
85
8.3kṀ86kresolved Dec 13
Resolved
NOA position reached after 10 moves is exactly similar to a position in two previous world championships
Resolved
YESAverage game length of the first half of the match is less than the second half
Resolved
NOAverage accuracy of game 14 > 95% on lichess post-game analysis
Resolved
NO1.d4 is the most commonly played first move
Resolved
NO1.e4 is the most commonly played first move
Resolved
NOFinal position in game 14 has a combined relative piece value of >30
Resolved
NOGame 14 is a draw in less than 45 moves
Resolved
NOBoth players have >35% chance of winning game 14, per lczero
Resolved
NOPawn to e5 is played at some point within the first three moves of game 14
Resolved
NOh-pawn crosses the fourth rank (to h5 for White or h4 for black) before move 14 in a game
Resolved
NOAverage "average centipawn loss" for a single game is greater than 50 in a game
Resolved
NOThe Queens Gambit Accepted is played at least once
Resolved
NOWinners TPR is >2820
Resolved
NOEither player forfeits the match before it's decided
Resolved
NOMatch is decided by tiebreaks
Resolved
NOA player reaches >40% odds of winning game 14 on lczero, but does not convert their advantage
Resolved
YESAny player reaches 90% odds of winning the match on Polymarket at some point during game 14
Resolved
NOGame 14 is decisive in less than 45 moves
Resolved
YESGame 14 lasts more than 48 moves
Resolved
YESGame 14 is decisive
Add your props. Please be as clear and concise as possible to avoid confusion.
Polymarket market referenced - https://polymarket.com/event/world-chess-championship-2024-winner?tid=1731990671056
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): All options refer to the classical portion of the match unless explicitly stated otherwise.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): Market will be resolved based on number of moves rather than time. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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