@dlin007 will you add any more options? If so, I’m confused how the “Other” option could resolve YES

@bens "Other" owners automatically get shares in any options added.

@MikeLinksvayer that's not correct at all. This is an unlinked binary market where each option can resolve YES indepedently. The Other option does not split, it was made manually by the market creator and is called "Other (someone else not on this list)"

@bens ah, whoops, thanks for the correction!

@bens discussed it a bit earlier below...still not clear?

Why has Caruana already resolved YES? I see no evidence that he has accepted the invitation!

@bens https://www.fide.com/fabiano-caruana-wins-fide-circuit-2024/#:~:text=Fabiano%20Caruana%20has%20secured%20victory,contenders%20for%20the%20top%20position. no mention of him accepting here, or in any other FIDE communications, AFAICT

@bens @dlin007

@bens Good point. For the 2024 Candidates, I think the official invites didn't go out until January of 2024, or shortly before. Carlsen declined on Jan 13th, 2024.

There's not even a site or terms yet, so it wouldn't make sense for Caruana to "accept" yet.

@bens good catch. it was an oversight by me, no idea how i could undo it now

What happens if someone qualifies, accepts the invitation, but then later cancels?

If someone qualifies, by declines to play in the candidates, that will still resolve to yes I presume?

Edit: nvm I see that you’ve specified they must also accept their invitation to play

Seeing as Naka just confirmed he'll focus on Freestyle Chess in 2025 and only play the World Cup, and skip Grand Swiss i don't see much of a path for him

Added a new option for "Other" to include all other players not on this list, which means the current list is final

@dlin007 FYI to anyone looking, the option is actually called "Someone else not on this list".

@DanielTilkin updated it to clarify things a bit

Having failed to win sole first in the World Rapid, Arjun can't overtake Fabi if he wins sole first in the World Blitz (esp. after Carlsen withdrew)

World Cup top 4s

Pre-registering my take early so I see how it ages: I'm extremely bearish on Abdusattorov and predict he won't come even close to qualifying. He's a 2800-level fighter and practical player but his chess in 2024 has been abjectly mediocre and unimpressive and he's been surviving on bad positions and swindles.

@dlin007 Carlsen disagrees slightly but what does he know

I've bet no on a bunch of people because the total % was much more than 800%, you can check with [...document.querySelectorAll('.whitespace-nowrap.font-bold.text-lg')].map(e => e.textContent).map(e => Number(e.replace('%',''))).reduce((a,b) => a+b, 0)

@Lorenzo ditto. There is a strange plateau when it should be more of a regular curve. I bet those on the plateau

@dlin007 The qualification paths really don't favor Hikaru-he doesn't play enough to qualify by circuit and probably rating, so will need to rank near the top of the grand swiss or world cup.

@Nightsquared But that is 5 spots in Candidates. Abd he has decent chance to qualify by rating, since possibly Caruana and Arjun will be already qualified.

@Weezing They're high variability compared to rating (or circuit if Hikaru played more)-harder for a top player to be top 3 of a 7-round single elimination tournament or a 100-person Swiss than to be in the top 2-3 of rated players not qualified for candidates/championship (i.e. how it used to be).

@Nightsquared it is higher variability, but still he is in better position than almost all of the other players. To play enough to have a good chnace in the circuit will be difficult for anyone.

@Nightsquared Hikaru will almost certainly be top 5 in the grand swiss IMO, and despite his claims to the contrary, will be motivated to qualify for the candidates