World Chess Championship Round 13 - Prop Bets
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Ṁ16kresolved Dec 11
Resolved
YESGukesh is the last to have 10+% chance of winning according to Leela (https://live.lczero.org/) (no if both)
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YESOne player will have 45+ minutes more on the clock than the opponent
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YESGame will last 50+ moves
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YESGukesh will make his 35th move with more time on the clock than Ding (Resolves NO, if the game ends before that)
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YESSomeone will have 37+% win chance according to Leela (https://live.lczero.org/)
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YESThere will be more pieces (incl. pawns) on the kingside than queenside at the end (no if equal)
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YESMagnus is generally favorable of Ding’s play in the take^3 recap
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YESSomeone will have 70+% win chance according to Leela (https://live.lczero.org/)
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NOGukesh wins
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NODing wins
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NOSomeone spends 40+ minutes thinking for one move
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NOBoth players castle on or before move 9.
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NOThere will be more pieces (not incl. pawns) on the kingside than queenside at the end (no if equal)
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NOGukesh will be the first to get up from the board
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NOGukesh will close his eyes on his move for 1+ minutes straight at the board on any of moves 5 through 10
Add any options you want. Ask for clarification if any options are unclear.
The game will be played on Wednesday, 11th of December, 9 AM GMT.
https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-world-championship-2024/game-13/UXqUOvNU/cRImlFZx
I won’t bet on “Magnus is generally favorable of Ding’s play in the take^3 recap” because it’s opinion based.
Credit to @Weezing for the question format.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Magnus’ favorability judged primarily by this quote: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0XMgS_owGw&t=1352s