When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

Question

"US Treasury yields, which usually fall in times of market volatility, rose in early April [2025]. While the benchmark 10-year yield has since fallen to about 4.3 per cent, many economists polled believe it could soon hit 5 per cent - a level that would spark concern within the Trump administration"-FT

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the date the 10-year US Treasury yield first reaches or exceeds 5%.

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the date the 10-year US Treasury yield first reaches or exceeds 5%.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, July 1, 2026 or after, or never, followed by Jan 1 - June 30 (2026) and Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025) are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Jul 1, 2026).

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