When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent? | Manifold

When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?

7

130Ṁ184

2026

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

5%

June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)

7%

Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)

7%

Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)

81%

July 1, 2026 or after, or never

"US Treasury yields, which usually fall in times of market volatility, rose in early April [2025]. While the benchmark 10-year yield has since fallen to about 4.3 per cent, many economists polled believe it could soon hit 5 per cent - a level that would spark concern within the Trump administration"-FT

Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the date the 10-year US Treasury yield first reaches or exceeds 5%.

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Based on the market setup, I am guessing you mean "when will the treasury yield first reach or exceed 5%?". Can you please clarify whether my interpretation is correct?

@dfish that's correct

Interesting... you two are more optimistic than the economists surveyed in that FT article. Interested to know your reasoning/intuition

In case it wasn't obvious I'm betting on this market, seeing as the metric is very objective.

sold Ṁ1 YES

If people are interested in this market I'm happy to add liquidity... as soon as I have 1000+ trade-able Mana

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Will the ten year treasury yield on October 28, 2025 be below that on August 18, 2025?

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-6% 1d82% chance

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Related questions

Will the ten year treasury yield on October 28, 2025 be below that on August 18, 2025?

Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2025 be 4% or higher?

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10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2025?

US 10-year treasury trades above 7% before 2026

Will 10-year treasury yields in 2032 be higher than 3.5%?

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

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