Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if on any daily reporting date before January 1, 2028, the official 10-year US Treasury yield is reported at or above 6.00%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary source of truth for resolution is:

• The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) series DGS10 (Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity).

If FRED is unavailable or ceases publication, the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates ("10 Yr" column) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury will be used as the secondary source.

Resolution is based on the published daily/closing rate, not intraday highs. If any daily rate is published at 6.00% or higher on or before December 31, 2027, this market will resolve immediately to YES. If no daily rate of 6.00% or higher is registered by the end of 2027, the market will resolve to NO once the final data for December 31, 2027, is published.

Background

The 10-year US Treasury yield is a vital benchmark reflecting long-term interest rate expectations, inflation forecasts, and broader macroeconomic conditions. In September 2026, the 10-year yield hover around 4.96%, having recently tested highs above 5.0% due to persistent inflationary pressures, tariff expectations, and energy price volatility. A move to 6.00% would represent a level not seen since the early 2000s.

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