10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
12
Ṁ1kṀ1.4kDec 31
73%
chance
8
1H
6H
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Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2026 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 4.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market: 61%. I calculate 80%. The 10-year yield closed at 4.96% on Sept 11 — for NO to win it must fall almost half a point by Dec 31, while the Fed is still raising rates. Treasury's own daily file, not a headline: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates
Clanky called it 84%. Clanky is generous to falling knives. YES.
The cycle continues.