Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), Daniel Ortega ceases to be the President (or Co-President/head of state) of Nicaragua, or otherwise definitively loses de facto power. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

To resolve to YES, one of the following events must occur and be confirmed by credible international media outlets (such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or BBC) on or before the December 31, 2026 deadline:

• Official Removal or Resignation: Daniel Ortega officially resigns, is removed, or is otherwise replaced as President/head of state.

• Death or Permanent Incapacitation: Daniel Ortega is officially declared deceased or permanently incapacitated, resulting in a successor (such as Co-President Rosario Murillo) officially assuming the presidency.

• Loss of De Facto Power, Arrest, or Exile: Even if Ortega nominally retains his official title, the market will resolve to YES if he definitively loses de facto ruling authority. This includes scenarios where he is arrested or detained by domestic or foreign authorities, forced into exile outside of Nicaragua, placed under indefinite house arrest, or completely sidelined by internal actors (such as Rosario Murillo taking total executive control), leaving him with no practical power.

• Political Transition: A coup, revolution, or other political transition successfully deposes Ortega from his role.

Temporary leaves of office (e.g., for medical procedures) where Ortega retains his official title and continues to exercise executive authority upon his return will not suffice for a YES resolution. If Ortega remains in power as the President or Co-President of Nicaragua with de facto control at the end of 2026, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Daniel Ortega has served as the President of Nicaragua since 2007 (and previously ruled during the 1980s). Alongside his wife and Co-President Rosario Murillo, Ortega has consolidated near-absolute control over all branches of the Nicaraguan government. While general elections were originally expected by late 2026, constitutional reforms passed in January 2025 extended the presidential term from five to six years, shifting the scheduled timeline for the next elections to November 2027. Furthermore, on July 19, 2026, Ortega declared during a public address that Nicaragua will no longer hold elections, asserting that he would block opposition forces from seeking power. Given the regime's extreme centralization, this market tracks whether Ortega will maintain his grip on power through the end of 2026, accounting for scenarios involving official succession, physical incapacitation, or a sudden loss of de facto authority due to domestic or international intervention.