Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?
Will Nayib Bukele be the leader of El Salvador in 2030?
➕
Plus
28
Ṁ2698
2030
39%
chance

President, or any office that becomes more powerful.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

He'd have to overturn the term limit requirement in the El Salvador consitution to be president in 2030, no?

1y

Does this resolve YES if he is president at ANY point in 2030? As in, if he's president on January 1st, 2030 will this resolve YES? Or does he need to be president through all of 2030, remaining president through Dec 31st 2030?

1y

@benshindel First one.

1y

According to EL CONFIDENCIAL (salvadorean newspaper) feels confortable with actual representative that they have, who is Nayib Bukele. It is remarkable that the people still have confidence in what the goverment is doing despite many international organizations are raising their complanings for the hard conditions of the jails in the country.

The next elections in El Salvador are going next year, so at least Nayib is going to be in power till 2030.

https://confidencial.digital/mundo/centroamerica/salvadorenos-no-perciben-deriva-autoritaria-de-nayib-bukele-senala-encuesta-lapop/

1y

As far as I can see (from an admittedly strictly amateur foreign perspective) Bukele has, in the process of his (very popular and successful) anti-crime crusade, demolished basically all the effective checks and balances that prevent him from acting as a dictator. Maybe he'll be like Washington/Cincinattus and step down, but the base rate for that is pretty low. I'd be pleasantly surprised.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules