When will Israeli forces begin the major offensive into Gaza? This means sending substantial forces with the purpose of beginning to take territory and extricate Hamas from that territory, as opposed to isolated small raids like the ones on Oct 13-14.
Resolution will use the Israeli time zone.
1,000
3.00I don't see any sources saying that there has been a ground invasion or ground offensive. The most new outlets are willing to say is that there are "expanded ground operations." Given that it's been 18 hours and news outlets are surely itching to say that Israel has invaded, and yet there hasn't been any reporting which explicitly calls this a ground offensive, I think this was prematurely resolved.
"'We moved to the next stage in the war,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in remarks broadcast Saturday. “Last evening, the ground shook in Gaza. We attacked above ground and underground. ... The instructions to the forces are clear. The campaign will continue until further notice.'
His comments signaled a gradual ramping up toward what is expected to evolve into an all-out ground offensive in northern Gaza."
This doesn't seem any different from their pre-Oct 27 posture.
@connorwilliams97 Check out Wikipedia and sources linked from there:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
Invasion of Gaza Strip (27 October–present)
On 27 October, internet and mobile phone services in Gaza were almost completely cut off as Israel intensified its bombing campaign.[288] Following this, IDF launched a large-scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. Clashes between Hamas and IDF were reported near the towns of Beit Hanoun and Bureij.[289]
On 28 October, Israel said that the units deployed inside Gaza Strip on Friday night were still on the ground.[290]
"Friday night" would be the 27th. I'll be trying to figure out the exact time, some discussion in the comment thread of my market indicates it was close to 9pm local time.
@chrisjbillington This is the source cited for the “full scale invasion” claim: it neither uses the word invasion nor describes events that are clearly an invasion. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67225204
@Domer https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-releases-footage-of-troops-tanks-operating-in-gaza-during-expanded-operations/
"The Israel Defense Forces releases footage of ground forces, including infantry troops, combat engineering forces and tanks, operating in the Gaza Strip overnight and this morning.
The forces are still in Gaza at this hour, operating deeper into the Hamas-run territory than previous limited incursions."
@sarius take this with a grain of salt, but as far as I can tell, it started at least a couple hours before midnight in Israel. I think the real question to me is whether this counts as the full-scale invasion. Israel seems to be referring to it as "increased raid activity," but I guess we won't know for a while whether that's true or not
via Axios: A senior Israeli official told Axios the IDF incursion that began on Friday is mostly taking place in the northern Gaza Strip. The official added that it is much bigger and more significant than the limited raids that have taken place in recent days.
So I think it's fair to say that this probably constitutes the beginning of the "major offensive" as laid out in the description. I would note that we are probably not going to see an "all out offensive" but more so a targeted (still major) expansion of the current operations, as Israel cuts into northern Gaza from the East into central Gaza (Bureij) and mostly from the North into central Gaza (Beit Hanoun).
@sarius I still think it's a little gray, it certainly doesn't seem like a small raid, but it also may not be with "the purpose of beginning to take territory and extricate Hamas from that territory."
e.g. if they eventually pull back and don't re-enter for a day, would this not just constitute a larger raid with the purpose of preparing for the ground offensive and not actually starting it?
@georgeyw It's up to @connorwilliams97 of course, but if the IDF don't stay in Gaza for a week or more, it would feel like not a Yes yet in the spirit of the question to me.
Probably wise to bet on next two weeks (with uniform distribution over the dates). Thus far the best strategy has been to bet repeatedly on delay, but domestic political pressure + repeated public statements + IDF challenge of sustaining readiness all point to the invasion being imminent. Moreover, even if IDF do not feel ready and face pushback from the US, they will act to do something, which will still count as a "major offensive" for this market.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-friday
Poly market is currently pricing a 65% chance of an invasion before the weekend. Whereas this market only predicts a 17% chance