Will at least one serious real-world event market on Manifold that sits at 1% or less actually resolve YES in 2023?
resolved Aug 23

Meant in the spirit of "1% or less at around* [edited for clarity] the time of resolution, barring a delay in applying the resolution after a satisfaction of the resolution criteria is certainly known"

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predicted NO

If something meeting the criteria happened in January 2023, before this question's creation, does it count? (IMO, it should in this context, but it's not super obvious)

@jack I mean, technically, I guess? It's less exciting and interesting to me to resolve this because of something that already happened that I was not aware of. I would want to duplicate the question to ask about the rest of the year, which is still interesting, and resolving the market now would require that if I wanted to still see that. I don't want to add arbitrary conditions after the fact, so I would resolve have to resolve it yes if that were the case.

predicted YES

@cloudprism site-wide, I assumed things happening before market creation wouldn't count. But lately I've been adding that as a default caveat.

@StrayClimb I've ran into this at least once already, but I think it happened after I made this market. I'll be sure to specify the exact start of the window in the future,

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@cloudprism Well, it's still useful to actually answer the question, even if it isn't as exciting.

@jack Yeah, that's why I mentioned making another market that is more specific.

@jack Wow, yeah that counts.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@cloudprism While maybe not the expected outcome, at least the market worked as a bounty to find information!

Oh, damn. I think I explicitly did not bet on this one when I found the monkeypox market, because I assumed it wouldn't count.

@jskf "in 2023" vs "will happen" vs "assumption this hadn't happened". Criteria clarity failure. Apologies.

predicted YES

@cloudprism It's happened to a lot of questions, no big deal. I look forward to predicting on the new one you create.

a comment here gives more examples of this happening on Metaculus:

any example/sample markets?

@higherLEVELING Here is one that satisfied ONE of the necessary criteria (1%->YES) but not BOTH of the necessary criteria (1%->YES plus "serious real-world event").


As far as a definition of "serious" goes, I mean it in a very broad sense. "Will Tiger Woods become a star soccer player in 2027?" would count.

@cloudprism I just realized this wouldn't count because 2027. I'm tired. Time for a nap

There's several retarded markets here like Jack's bakhmut one that could be reversed or resolved NA. These extreme upsets usually happen when the entire site is retarded and the resolution criteria is biased to the point of being meaningless. However otherwise Karen's will ensure 99% resolution always win.

There's lots of markets that decay to <1% as the closing date approaches. Is this the average percentage?

Notably the pope died on the last day of the year: /ScottLawrence/will-pope-emeritus-benedict-survive

Percentage at moment of resolution, meaning the moment the criteria for certain resolution is known and satisfactory, not necessarily the moment the market is mechanically resolved, which can be delayed

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Edit: nvm

@cloudprism how will you evaluate the resolution criteria? Will you perform a review/study of all the markets on Manifold or are you delegating the responsibility to find a qualifying market to the community, for someone to link the market they believe qualifies here?

@ShitakiIntaki Good question. I am delegating the responsibility, just like with the NaN% market.