Will at least one serious real-world event market on Manifold that sits at 1% or less actually resolve YES in 2023?
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jackson
21
closes Dec 31
29%
chance

Meant in the spirit of "1% or less at time of resolution, barring a delay in applying the resolution after a satisfaction of the resolution criteria is certainly known"

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higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELING

any example/sample markets?

DjdjEueuw avatar
Djdj Eueuw

There's several retarded markets here like Jack's bakhmut one that could be reversed or resolved NA. These extreme upsets usually happen when the entire site is retarded and the resolution criteria is biased to the point of being meaningless. However otherwise Karen's will ensure 99% resolution always win.

Mira avatar
Mira (edited)

There's lots of markets that decay to <1% as the closing date approaches. Is this the average percentage?

Notably the pope died on the last day of the year: /ScottLawrence/will-pope-emeritus-benedict-survive

cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jackson

Percentage at moment of resolution, meaning the moment the criteria for certain resolution is known and satisfactory, not necessarily the moment the market is mechanically resolved, which can be delayed

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ30 of YES(edited)

Edit: nvm

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoe

@cloudprism how will you evaluate the resolution criteria? Will you perform a review/study of all the markets on Manifold or are you delegating the responsibility to find a qualifying market to the community, for someone to link the market they believe qualifies here?

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