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If something meeting the criteria happened in January 2023, before this question's creation, does it count? (IMO, it should in this context, but it's not super obvious)

@jack I mean, technically, I guess? It's less exciting and interesting to me to resolve this because of something that already happened that I was not aware of. I would want to duplicate the question to ask about the rest of the year, which is still interesting, and resolving the market now would require that if I wanted to still see that. I don't want to add arbitrary conditions after the fact, so I would resolve have to resolve it yes if that were the case.

@cloudprism site-wide, I assumed things happening before market creation wouldn't count. But lately I've been adding that as a default caveat.

@StrayClimb I've ran into this at least once already, but I think it happened after I made this market. I'll be sure to specify the exact start of the window in the future,

@cloudprism Well, it's still useful to actually answer the question, even if it isn't as exciting.

Here you go: https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-in-5eced7dd2677

I just remembered that this existed.

Will the Mpox (monkeypox) outbreak in the US end in February 2023?

Resolved YES. Resolves YES if the 7-day moving average of Mpox cases reported by the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html) is 0 on any day before March 1, 2023. The market closes on February 28, 2023, but data for the last days of the month will likely not be available until later, so I will resolve the market whenever data for February 28 is available. I will resolve with the first data available, be aware that CDC might adjust the count later (although this is less of a problem for a moving average).

@jack Yeah, that's why I mentioned making another market that is more specific.

@jack Wow, yeah that counts.

@cloudprism While maybe not the expected outcome, at least the market worked as a bounty to find information!

Oh, damn. I think I explicitly did not bet on this one when I found the monkeypox market, because I assumed it wouldn't count.

@jskf "in 2023" vs "will happen" vs "assumption this hadn't happened". Criteria clarity failure. Apologies.

@cloudprism It's happened to a lot of questions, no big deal. I look forward to predicting on the new one you create.

@jack https://manifold.markets/cloudprism/how-many-realworld-events-in-2023-w?r=Y2xvdWRwcmlzbQ

How many real-world events in 2023 will resolve a Manifold market with a 99%+ reversal? (full year inclusive)

One of these has already been found. 1%->YES and 99%->NO both count.

This one is close, but it only reached 3%, so it does not count: https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-imprisone?r=Y2xvdWRwcmlzbQ

Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be imprisoned or deceased by end of August?

95% chance. Yes = he is publicly known to be imprisoned (in Russia, or any other place), or to be deceased - or it can be inferred as very likely from public sources No = not the case I might resolve Prob if it's some unclear in-between situation, a-la Kim Jong-Il in the last months of his stay on this Earth, blessed be his name

a comment here gives more examples of this happening on Metaculus:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre#A6rJZ9xbQywdZCyV8wCX

any example/sample markets?

@higherLEVELING Here is one that satisfied ONE of the necessary criteria (1%->YES) but not BOTH of the necessary criteria (1%->YES plus "serious real-world event").

https://manifold.markets/cloudprism/will-any-market-reach-nan?r=Y2xvdWRwcmlzbQ

Will any market reach NaN%?

Resolved YES. [image]

As far as a definition of "serious" goes, I mean it in a very broad sense. "Will Tiger Woods become a star soccer player in 2027?" would count.

for grins:

Will Tiger Woods become a star soccer player in 2027?

50% chance.

@cloudprism I just realized this wouldn't count because 2027. I'm tired. Time for a nap

There's several retarded markets here like Jack's bakhmut one that could be reversed or resolved NA. These extreme upsets usually happen when the entire site is retarded and the resolution criteria is biased to the point of being meaningless. However otherwise Karen's will ensure 99% resolution always win.

There's lots of markets that decay to <1% as the closing date approaches. Is this the average percentage?

Notably the pope died on the last day of the year: /ScottLawrence/will-pope-emeritus-benedict-survive

Percentage at moment of resolution, meaning the moment the criteria for certain resolution is known and satisfactory, not necessarily the moment the market is mechanically resolved, which can be delayed

Edit: nvm

@cloudprism how will you evaluate the resolution criteria? Will you perform a review/study of all the markets on Manifold or are you delegating the responsibility to find a qualifying market to the community, for someone to link the market they believe qualifies here?

@ShitakiIntaki Good question. I am delegating the responsibility, just like with the NaN% market.