We're playing as black, against lichess's level 3 stockfish bot as white. Will we win?

Resolves YES if we get a checkmate / lichess resigns, or NO if we're mated by lichess, or PROB at 50% if it's a draw, or N/A if I'm unable to continue for some reason.

Link to the game: https://lichess.org/sLmZPb9nTcN

The current move is

Move History

1. g3 d5

2. Bg2 e5

3. Nf3 Bd6

4. c3 Nf6

5. O-O d4

6. Ng5 dxc3

7. bxc3 h6

8. Ne4 Nxe4

9. Qb3 Nc5

10. Qc2 e4

11. Bxe4 Nxe4

12. Qb3 Bf5

13. Na3 Qc8

14. Nc2 Be5

15. Qd5 Nd7

16. Ba3 c6

17. Qd3 Nxg3

18. fxg3 Bxd3

19. exd3 Qb8

20. Nd4 Bxg3

21. Nf3 ...

I'll post a separate market for each turn, that will close daily at midnight PST. Anyone who holds YES on this market can vote for a move in the comments.

Last time manifold played chess (https://manifold.markets/group/manifold-plays-chess), we lost -- someone bought a bunch of NO and then bid up bad moves. This is an experiment to see if that can be avoided with good market structure.