[Manifold plays chess] 11. Qf3 Bb7 12.
8
13
resolved Oct 9
3%
Be2
0.2%
exf6
0.5%
Nxb5
96%
Qd5

Your move!

Link to the game in lichess:

https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/r2qkb1r/pb1n1p2/2p1pn2/1p2P1B1/2pP4/2N2Q2/PP3PPP/R3KB1R%20w%20KQkq%20-%203%2012

  1. d4 d5

  1. c4 c6

  1. Nc3 Nf6

  2. Nf3 e6

  3. Bg5 dxc4

  4. e4 b5

  5. e5 h6

  6. Bh4 g5

  7. Nxg5 hxg5

  8. Bxg5 Nbd7

  9. Qf3 Bb7

You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.

After the market close I will generate a random number and the move corresponding to that percentage will be picked. For example, order the moves from highest percentage to lowest. Then to find a moves range you sum the percentages that are greater which give you the lower end of the range than add the percentage of the move itself to get the higher end of the range.

Here's the previous move and a market for the result:

Oct 8, 11:10am: [Manifold play chess] 11. Qf3 Bb7 12. → [Manifold plays chess] 11. Qf3 Bb7 12.

Oct 9, 6:37am: Random number between 1- 997 is 588 so Qd5.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ497
Sort by:

@AlexLiesman What was the random number chosen? It wasn't put into the market description.

@Mateon1 Sorry. forgot to submit.

answered
Qd5

Not as satisfied as if I had enough liquidity to push the other market below 11%

answered
Qd5

@jfjurchen Okay then, unless we get really lucky, the game is dead. Are you satisfied?

answered
Qd5
bought Ṁ2,000

ok yeah you get WAY better odds buying at the last minute, +20% EV (and i think i could have done even better buying multiple blunders up)

answered
Be2

@Sinclair Sure, that can be fun, but I would suggest to at least consult the eval bar. Stockfish is actually quite bad except as a blunder check for this game. I'm personally using Leela tuned with a very large policy softmax (so it has high prior probabilities on all moves, which affects the value of positions in a way consistent with noisy play) and fairly high CPuct parameter (which causes more exploration).

answered
Be2

i’m betting on moves that i would’ve done, not moves that are engine optimal. I think “Alex vs manifold” is more fun than “Alex vs stockfish”

answered
Nxb5

@Sinclair This move is bad. Sure, black cannot just capture the knight, but the knight returns to c3 in all good lines, so black basically gets 2 free moves for a pawn, which works out really well for black in this position. A quick check with Lichess stockfish reports this move as -7 pawns!

answered
Be2

@Sinclair Other moves in this position suck, Qf3 was a mistake that lost all of our advantage, consult an engine.

exf6 is okay, but not the best move.

answered
Be2

@Mateon1 soooo slooow