Your move!
Link to the game in lichess:
d4 d5
c4 c6
Nc3 Nf6
Nf3 e6
Bg5 dxc4
e4 b5
e5 h6
Bh4 g5
Nxg5 hxg5
Bxg5 Nbd7
Qf3 Bb7
You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.
After the market close I will generate a random number and the move corresponding to that percentage will be picked. For example, order the moves from highest percentage to lowest. Then to find a moves range you sum the percentages that are greater which give you the lower end of the range than add the percentage of the move itself to get the higher end of the range.
Here's the previous move and a market for the result:
Oct 8, 11:10am: [Manifold play chess] 11. Qf3 Bb7 12. → [Manifold plays chess] 11. Qf3 Bb7 12.
Oct 9, 6:37am: Random number between 1- 997 is 588 so Qd5.
ok yeah you get WAY better odds buying at the last minute, +20% EV (and i think i could have done even better buying multiple blunders up)
@Sinclair Sure, that can be fun, but I would suggest to at least consult the eval bar. Stockfish is actually quite bad except as a blunder check for this game. I'm personally using Leela tuned with a very large policy softmax (so it has high prior probabilities on all moves, which affects the value of positions in a way consistent with noisy play) and fairly high CPuct parameter (which causes more exploration).
i’m betting on moves that i would’ve done, not moves that are engine optimal. I think “Alex vs manifold” is more fun than “Alex vs stockfish”