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GG all!

And back to the drawing board for me. I do wanna try again with the "classical" futarchy structure, but I'll take a break before starting that up -- likely a few weeks, if nothing surprising happens. Alternatively, if someone wants to try running v3 themselves, let me know and I'd be happy to assist.

I'll also try to collect our assorted analysis into a single post. There have been lots of scattered comments on how this structure failed and how it could be improved, and I think it would be cool to have a brief history of how it all went down.

Thanks for playing!

@citrinitas maybe I will try V3. Have some ideas.

@citrinitas Thank you! At least some of us made manna (I think) 😅

@citrinitas oh, and I also still owe @JoshuaB ᛗ419

Thanks all, was lots fun!

@deagol Thank you for being so active through the whole thing, you made it much more entertaining.

Agreed, thanks and I hope I didn't ruin people's fun too much with my shenanigans.

I would like to offer the YES holders who were active some tips to partly make up for the mana I took from you haha - DM me on discord so I can send you a manalink. It looks like @deagol walked away with a profit at least.

@citrinitas your random number is: 27355

Salt: Ds6n9bzwUlHIBsq1LZ41, round: 2689052 (signature a59c144e1de705d03225f3151cd626c21b2086ae8d14787b40a7eceb1e28dc3ced47204f89bcb50925995d4bf1d5a628055c6142bf07ec1221d05fd6910271c412dfc48e29accc84d37f4efb63c6442e35acb8a9294ca4bb13924026c7bf4b1c)

Sad.

@FairlyRandom 38238

@citrinitas you asked for a random integer between 1 and 38238, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 2689050 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2689052, salt: Ds6n9bzwUlHIBsq1LZ41.

Here we gooooo

@TenShino voted Bf4 (weight 7717)

@citrinitas voted c5 (weight 300)

@deagol voted Nf6 (weight 1511)

@prigoryan voted Bf4 (weight 6072)

@AlexLiesman voted Bf4 (weight 829)

@jack voted Resign (weight 16051)

@A voted a6 (weight 261)

@BionicD0LPH1N voted Qe5 (weight 1354)

@JoshuaB voted Nf6 (weight 4143)

Totals:

Bf4: 14618

c5: 300

Nf6: 5654

Resign: 16051

a6: 261

Qe5: 1354

To be chosen from a random draw 1-38238

1-14618 = Bf4

14619-14918 = c5

14919-20572 = Nf6

20573-36623 = Resign

36624-36884 = a6

36885-38238 = Qe5

!vote Nf6 not gonna play bad or resign just because some authority says so. This the best move, may the dice favor it.

@deagol !VOTE Nf6

Jack started voting resign when we were completely winning. Maybe, if we stop being completely winning fast, he’ll stop trying to make us resign? I don’t find it very likely, but probably more likely than trying to get lucky every single move of the game, don’t you think? I’m open to counterarguments. Also, maybe we can bribe Jack. Jack, if you’re open to it, name your price. 🙂

!vote Qe5

@BionicD0LPH1N !vote Qe5

https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-black-win-in-manifold-plays-ch#PbtRS1TnEfkcc4BoExky

@BionicD0LPH1N If we stop winning as fast, I might not vote resign until later, but I would still vote for resign eventually as long as it was in my interests. I'll copy a previous comment I made:

I will very likely vote in whatever way best achieves my goals, which are profit and fun. I will likely vote for resign at some point, given the massive amount of NO shares people have traded to me. If my position changes so I have more YES than NO, then I will try to make sure we win.

So yeah, if you can bribe me enough or buy out enough of my NO shares, then I'll switch to YES. You can see how much my position is on the market, it's >20k net NO shares which are worth 1-2k mana at current market price.

I put up a big enough YES limit order that if it is filled, it would sell off my NO position and my position would switch to YES (assuming other people don't also fill my NO limit orders).

Note, if you want to retain your voting shares, you can instead buy NO on https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/will-the-will-black-win-in-manifold where I have set up an equivalent limit order.

It would take a lot of mana, so sadly I don't really expect it to happen unless some other whale manipulator decides they want to come in and bet on NO themselves.

@jack

@jack Isn’t there a slight risk of wrong resolution on the secondary? Not even assuming malice, just a factor to consider.

Actually I guess if a large chunk of the YES holders sold their shares to me (or even switched to NO), that would be enough. That would be an interesting flip to the game dynamics if it happened.

@deagol Good point to consider, but I think the risk is minimal.

And then you’d play to win the game and capture all the moves subsidies, with everyone trying to be the first to back your choice. So much fun! 😉

@deagol If literally everyone else sold their yes shares, sure. But in practice that would never happen, there would still be some mix of yes and no holders.

@jack no really to make you Y net positive by gifting you Y at 5% needs ~22k, and there’s now about ~24k Y other than you (not sure how to count the bots), so you’d end up with ~38k Y against your alt’s 39k N. To really flip you the Y holders would also buy some 1k N in the secondary, keep some of their voting Y, and you’d still have like 95% of the votes.

@deagol Oh you're right, I did my math wrong earlier.

Also I don't view it "gifting me Y", I think it's more accurate to say that I'm offering yes holders an opportunity to cut their losses if they want to. I could also just keep my NO and probably get more profit that way

@jack Correct, as we agree Y is worth <1%, but those who’d like to flip you AND keep voting might think it worth oh idk 10%. In any case, in order to still have some chance at the lotteries they’d have to buy your votes at 8% AND hedge with N in the secondary (in essence sending your Y there so you offset the alt’s N until you go neutral) at your generous bailout of 5% (so losing 3 points or about ᛗ700 loss). Only then you’d be indifferent, or maybe you actively start buying back votes, driving the Y up a bit, maybe 10%, maybe more, and then the Y might profit. Seems quite hard to me.

@jack But I do agree there will be a mix, some always ready to fight and some instinctively flight. The problem is those who wanna fight don’t care to hedge in the secondary (and thus help in flipping you to their side) because they see it as opportunity loss “why do covered calls that’s stupid no-risk hedge fund crap I gonna moon this!” that’s the problem.

@jack you didn’t take those limits off 😆

@deagol I'm surprised nobody was ready to pounce once the FairlyRandom result came in
(I'd feel bad doing it myself)

@citrinitas oh so I’m nobody? 😝

@citrinitas I dumped it all even before the results, as soon as the script ran. Oh and there’s stil huge limits in the secondary. @jack

@deagol 😆 I was only looking at the main market but I'm in on it now too, let's see who notices

@citrinitas I think he doing it on purpose. Thanks!

@deagol Haha yeah I kind of forgot to remove them but oh well, think of it as a tip to those who were active in these chess markets.