Manifold currently isn't paying unique trader bonuses, due to an as-of-yet unidentified bug. Trader bonuses ceased around 13:15 Nov 3rd PDT.
Will creators be paid the unique trader bonuses, that they would have been paid in that time, within two weeks of the problem otherwise being fixed?
This should be doable on Manifold's part, since the data exists to determine when markets got new unique traders at what time, there is not much ambiguity.
Resolves YES if this seems to have happened by the end of the day, 14 days after the calendar day, pacific time, on which trader bonuses resumed. E.g. if trader bonuses resume on Nov 7th pacific time, then this market resolves YES if backpayment happens before the end of Nov 21st, pacific time.
Backpayment should cover the vast majority of missing bonuses to count. I won't resolve NO if they remain missing for some small fraction of users or a small fraction of payments for all users, but it should be the vast majority that get paid (95%+ of all missing bonuses, if you want to put a number on it). In principle we could calculate this with API calls if needed, but hopefully that won't be necessary.
This market's close date will be extended as needed until two weeks after trader bonuses resume. If there is an annoucement that trader bonuses are dicontinued permanently, this market will resolve NO two weeks after the date of said announcement, if there is no backpayment in that time.
Edit: trader bonuses have resumed (on Nov 6th PT) and I've updated the close date accordingly, to end of day PT two weeks later.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ81 | |
| 2 | Ṁ74 | |
| 3 | Ṁ63 | |
| 4 | Ṁ32 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
It's a creator economy and us creators keep getting the screw for the efforts! "We don't owe it to users" or basically therein you having no contract legal obligation for the payout. Okay? Good for you! How about empathetic obligation? How about effective altruism. Haha it's a game for you, screwing for thee, but not for me for I am not owing it to the users. Okay? And how about the league standings as they are, and the many effects moving forward? It's not okay!
Idk - some of my reaction is "all of our bonuses (referral, trader, subsidies) are best effort grants and we don't owe it to users to pay those out", compared to eg purchases of mana and bets made with mana, where we do have an obligation to make sure those are operating correctly.
Like - I'm sorry this happened, we've retrod it and will try to do better in the future, but at the same time we have a lot of other work to get to, and fixing this 100% would take a bunch of extra onetime eng work. Genzy has been nice enough to offer paybacks for anyone who asks, and I feel like that roughly represents how much time we want to invest into this issue.
@bohaska oh, I think Genzy should feel free to withdraw however much mana he needs to refund people from the official Manifold account! (That's what I assume he was already doing lol)
@Austin I don't mind, I get lots of referral mana from ads and random promo stuff that I use to bankroll bounties and things like this
edit: Also, I appreciate you guys looking out for me !!
Well I wish I knew this before I created the 50 markets I made yesterday for my daily leaderboard. I am not even sure If I got them over the weekend either.
Did not seem that their was a fix yesterday 11/6, but I will keep a watchful eye.
This is also why I wish there was a Balance Ledger on the side bar or under the Portfolio.
@SirCryptomind bonuses resumed about 08:24 Nov 6th PST, so if you created the markets after then, you won't have missed any bonuses.
@chrisjbillington Looks like about 25 of 50 were made 30 minutes prior to fix, about 10 around the time of fix, and the remaining 10 after the fix.
@SirCryptomind in case it wasn't clear, you only missed out on bonuses for the traders in that first half hour of the markets created half an hour before. Not ideal, but these markets aren't doomed forever.
Doesn't look promising.
@BTE if you include with the launch of your Manifold competitor a commitment to actually fix bugs that negatively impact the users who have invested hundreds of hours in your platform, I bet that would help you get people to leave Manifold in favor of yours.
in an unofficial way I have offered to repay anyone who can substantiate their loss (either missed trader bonuses, or because they subsidized markets to fix the problem)
it won't help your leagues, but I am more than happy to cover for people who were making markets that were primarily active on the weekend.
Edit: Everyone who has interacted with this market's comments has been sent a rough amount that should cover it.
I probably won't seek out any others to reimburse, but if you had a particularly important weekend (or are an up-and-coming market maker) I will consider more payouts!
@Gen That's very generous of you. What were the times at which the bug started and ended?
@IsaacKing Friday night to Monday morning afaik. My rough calculation for paying out is to check the last 7 day increase in traders and basically pay out for half of that as though it was during the downtime.
@IsaacKing If there is I'm not aware of it, other than counting up bets on all their markets and filtering based on bet times. But I haven't searched.