Apparently a large fraction of people using streaming services watch movies and shows with subtitles enabled all the time - even when watching content in their own native language.
Will cinemas follow this trend, and start showing English subtitles for English-language films, before 2030?
This market resolves YES if a major cinema chain in the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, or Canada starts showing mainstream, popular, English-language films with English subtitles for at least some sessions.
It must be routine - not a one-off for a particular film or a single day when all films have subtitles, or anything like that.
It must be across most of the cinemas in that chain within the country that subtitles are available.
The subtitles must be displayed on the screen itself with the film.
The films for which subtitles are available must be ordinary, mainstream, popular films, in particular the market won't resolve YES due to a film that has a specific, niche reason why it makes sense to have subtitles (e.g. it was an artistic statement by the film-makers to give everyone inaudible accents, the use of subtitles plays a role in the story somehow, was done as a joke, etc).
It doesn't have to be all films that are available with subtitles. But it should be more than one film, at the same time.
The relevant timezone for "before 2030" is local time wherever the relevant sessions are showing.
1,000I think this might already be the case in the UK, and it wouldn't surprise me in other countries.
A mainstream chain - Odeon, Vue, Cineworld, they should all count.
Mainstream, popular English-language films with English subtitles - Dune Part 2, Imaginary, Bob Marley, Wicked Little Letters... those are some of the big ones on right now.
For at least some sessions - Each of those chains I listed seems to have each of those films I listed for one or two shows in the next week in my city, and one other random UK city I checked. I think that counts as "at least some sessions".
Not a one-off - as above.
Most cinemas in that chain in the country - this is a hard one to prove. I'm not going to check 50% of all the Vues in the UK to see how many subtitle shows it's got.
Must be displayed on the screen - I'm not sure I understand this one. Where else would they be?
(This website lists subtitled showings for lots of cities in the UK. Not sure if it goes further afield than that. https://yourlocalcinema.com/)
Although I haven't proved that it's most cinemas in that chain in the country, I think it's very likely. There are deaf people in every city.
I do feel this isn't quite in the spirit of your market, because I think you were trying to get at "normal" people watching with subtitles by choice rather than accessible showings for people who are hard of hearing, but I still think it should count. I'm not deaf, and I went to see Avatar 2 with subtitles just because that was the showing at the time I wanted to go.
@Fion Interesting!
I hadn't anticipated that subtitles-on-the-screen would be common already as an accessibility thing, as opposed to closed captions. That's fine though, I'm not going to try to exclude this from counting for the resolution criteria.
In fact, it makes me wonder - if they're available at the majority of cinemas in some major chains, are most people attending these sessions closer to the "hard of hearing" end of the spectrum, or closer to the "just prefer subtitles" end?
'Cause this is how it starts, an accessibility feature is available and then everyone starts using it. And you're an example, maybe you weren't seeking it out but it wasn't off-putting enough for you to avoid a session with subtitles. So perhaps things are too far off what I was going for.
Maybe I'll make another market with a higher threshold, like 20% of sessions for a major movie have subtitles or something like that.
I may or may not try to figure out soon if the "majority of cinemas in a chain" condition is already satisfied, if I have time.