Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?
31
1.7k
2029
42%
chance

Background

Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as Youtube, Netflix and Vimeo already have the ability to playback content in 60 FPS.

Some movies have been released in 48 FPS, such as The Hobbit, and some even in 120 FPS, such as Gemini Man or (parts of) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, but none of these have had widespread acclaim by critics. One way to measure how much critics enjoy a film is the Academy Awards (known as the Oscars), which nominates and gives awards to films and directors & actors of films.

Resolution Criteria

We consider High Frame Rate (HFR) to be 59.5 or higher FPS. A film will qualify even if it is not HFR for the entirety of the film.

This question will resolve if an Academy Award is given to a movie that is released in HFR before it is nominated. The award must be in a category which already existed in 2023, excluding short film categories. When the award is given to a person, such as "Best Actor", then the movie they performed in to get the award must have been released in HFR.

A movie is "released in HFR" if the general public can view the movie in HFR format, whether this is online streaming, in theater, on blu-ray, or some other way.

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Would Avatar Way of Water count?

predicts NO

@ForrestTaylor No, as it only had 48 FPS scenes, while this market is about movies with scenes with more than 59.5 FPS.

Good market.

I created a similar question on Metaculus a while ago (LINK), where they seem to predict a 45% chance of it happening before 2030. Though that question only considers 4 different categories, while this question considers every category (minus short films), so this should have a higher chance of occurring.

(but I personally think there's a much lower chance of this happening before 2030 than they think)

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