Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?
Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?
32
1kṀ1702
2029
40%
chance

Background

Today, most mainstream cinematic movies are made to be watched in 24 frames per second (FPS). This is despite the widespread availability of screens and cameras made for 60 FPS content. Services such as Youtube, Netflix and Vimeo already have the ability to playback content in 60 FPS.

Some movies have been released in 48 FPS, such as The Hobbit, and some even in 120 FPS, such as Gemini Man or (parts of) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, but none of these have had widespread acclaim by critics. One way to measure how much critics enjoy a film is the Academy Awards (known as the Oscars), which nominates and gives awards to films and directors & actors of films.

Resolution Criteria

We consider High Frame Rate (HFR) to be 59.5 or higher FPS. A film will qualify even if it is not HFR for the entirety of the film.

This question will resolve if an Academy Award is given to a movie that is released in HFR before it is nominated. The award must be in a category which already existed in 2023, excluding short film categories. When the award is given to a person, such as "Best Actor", then the movie they performed in to get the award must have been released in HFR.

A movie is "released in HFR" if the general public can view the movie in HFR format, whether this is online streaming, in theater, on blu-ray, or some other way.

Technology
Movies
Oscars 2024
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1y

Would Avatar Way of Water count?

predictedNO

@ForrestTaylor No, as it only had 48 FPS scenes, while this market is about movies with scenes with more than 59.5 FPS.

1y

Good market.

1y

I created a similar question on Metaculus a while ago (LINK), where they seem to predict a 45% chance of it happening before 2030. Though that question only considers 4 different categories, while this question considers every category (minus short films), so this should have a higher chance of occurring.

(but I personally think there's a much lower chance of this happening before 2030 than they think)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules