Important: in the case of a draw (both judges undecided, or a split decision), this market resolves N/A, not NO.

Rootclaim is an organisation, founded by Saar Wilf, that performs analysis and makes truth claims on various, possibly controversial matters. One current such claim is that COVID-19 originated in a lab leak, with high probability.

Rootclaim has a standing offer called the Rootclaim challange, in which someone who disagrees with their analysis may challenge them to a debate judged by professional judges, with each party having $100,000 at stake.

No such debate has yet taken place. (Edit: It has now!)

AstralCodexTen commentor Peter Miller (who goes by the handle BSP9000) is currently considering taking them up on the offer, on the topic of whether COVID-19 originate in a lab leak. Peter Miller will argue that COVID-19 did not originate in a lab leak, and RootClaim will argue that it did. Peter and Saar Wilf are currently attempting to find judges.

Conditional on such a debate going ahead, will Peter Miller win?

This market will resolve YES if a debate largely matching the spirit of the Rootclaim challange, with approximately $100,000 at stake, goes ahead this year, and Peter Miller is judged to be the winner. Reduced stakes will not count, other than as needed to pay for the costs of the judges and other costs relating to the debate itself, which is stipulated as part of the challange.

If Saar Wilf is judged to be the winner, this market will resolve NO.

If the debate does not go ahead or if there is not a clear winner, it resolves N/A.

Edit Oct 22: in light of the rules of the debate prescribing different degrees of victory, as discussed by Peter Miller here, It seems neccesary to clarify what counts as "winning". Peter Miller writes:

The winner will receive $100,000 for a unanimous decision. If one judge is undecided, the payout will be $50,000. There's also a possibility that neither side wins anything, if both judges are undecided or it's a split decision with one judge voting natural and the other voting for gain of function.

Assuming the above is accurate, I'll count a participant that receives either a $100,000 payout or a $50,000 payout as the winner. That is, a participant declared the winner unanimously by both judges, or by one judge with the other undecided, is the winner for the purposes of this market.

Update Dec 30th: the debate has taken place and we now await the judges' results.

Edit Jan 22nd: here is Peter's latest comment with links to videos and documents from the debate, included here in full for convenience (since it will get buried in the comment thread otherwise):

I've posted all the videos and all the slides. Now we're just waiting on the judges to announce.

The original rules said they'd just write something, but Saar and I recently asked judges to make some videos as well, for something more authoritative.

We're still figuring out the timing... maybe another week, give or take?

Get your bets in now before it's too late.

For anyone tuning in late, the videos are here:

https://www.youtube.com/@tgof137/videos

And the written documents were posted in a few different threads:

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#MnyfXgxSlBcibruUuPix

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#yTVcg82DSpZN5z0PCzrq

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#6qAoFKOBTNX19qkVQwC4

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#u7RkSIgHHxAswJeev8Vc

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-bsp9000-win-the-rootclaim-chal#QXjaWtX6e9928lpVcUEX