Inclined to resolve this NO based on the lack of news, but does anybody know where this actually stands?

@IsaacKing Last update I heard was ~5 months ago when @PeterMillerc030 mentioned to Destiny he was helping rootclaim with this debate. Maybe he can give another update?

I pretty sure the money is confirmed in escrow so presumably if Steve Krisch stops responding that will eventually be a win for rootclaim?

@Alfie Last I heard they've gone 6 rounds and are still debating.

They have judges, money is in escrow. I don't know about edge cases where, like, they debate for 2 years and it never concludes, but I'd guess it eventually will.

@PeterMillerc030 Awesome, thank you!

https://kirschsubstack.com/p/the-1m-covid-vaccine-debate-is-now

Initially, each Judge must score 0 on the following scoring system

Decision The Judges will attempt to evaluate whether, in the US, the lives
saved by the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are more or less than the
deaths they caused, as of January 1st, 2023.
Each judge will issue one of three decisions:
1. Score +1: The evidence better supports the hypothesis that
the vaccines resulted in more people being alive.
2. Score -1: The evidence better supports the hypothesis that
the vaccines resulted in less people being alive.
3. Score 0: The evidence supports both hypotheses at about the
same level.
For the pre-debate vote, this score can also indicate that a
judge has not studied the issue enough to reach a +1 or -1
vote.

It's going to be pretty hard to find people that score 0 AND that you'd trust with a 1 million dollar decision.

The rootclaim approach of claiming to objectively quantify likelihoods on binary questions and then finding it reasonable for judges to say they're still at 50/50 when all the evidence is in is odd. It would be way better if there were a requirement to vote up or down; even if the judges end up close to 50/50, they're still on one side or the other if they consider any evidence at all.

See also: