Resolves YES if, in 2024, SpaceX's Starship–Superheavy vehicle successfully transports a commercial payload to orbit or beyond.
The payload must be for a non-governmental, paying customer. This excludes SpaceX's Starlink satellites or any other payloads owned by SpaceX.
Joint private-government payloads are excluded unless the government's contribution or involvement is strictly financial and constitutes less than 50% of the total project funding.
For a launch carrying multiple payloads, the market will resolve YES if at least one meets these criteria.
"In 2024" means deployment of payload confirmed before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.
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No payloads to orbit so far
There was a cryogenic fuel transfer test for NASA/spacex but presumably that isn't non-governmental nor commercial and was not delivered to orbit, was suborbital. So don't believe this should qualify.
Think it can resolve without too much controversy over this. @chrisjbillington
@Mqrius Good point, and even the first Starlink launches on Starship probably won't be until near the end of 2024 at the earliest, Elon said last October that they hoped to start Starlink launches on Starship in about one year: https://spacenews.com/starship-satellite-launches-a-year-away/