What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

140Ṁ309

Jan 1

24%

chance

ALL

The difference here is I will be resolving this to the % of the result of a poll conducted last week of 2025.

End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3

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Explain and elaborate this P'domm consept, plz.

@EspenJohannesen it's pretty widely discussed online

@chris I hope you realize that not elaborating on it makes this market less liquid than it otherwise would have been. None of the 5 links in the description contain a definition of P(doom), and I can't be arsed to look it up after a vague "pretty widely discussed online". I spend too much time on Manifold as it is.

@Hakari I'm on with that.

@EspenJohannesen + @Hakari So... I've read 5 sentences using google now, and my personal opinion is ZERO prosent in the meaning of the word.
But my second opinion is that, it is a HUNDRED prosent chance that there will be a massive crash.
The dot com bubble 2.0.
I as a normal person, with average understanding of my smart phone, now, what services do I need ? How does the billions of dollars invested in all of this, improve my life or the services I am using ?