I think that Palestinian militant organizations and Hamas in particular have misunderstood their International standing pretty profoundly. I think that they interpret the widespread support for the Palestinian cause in the Arab world and the west as giving them significant leverage over Israel. The lesson learned from the 2021 conflict was that civilian casualties caused by bombing Gaza will always force the west to pressure Israel to de-escalate. I think the idea behind October 7 was that if they can take a bunch of hostages Bait Israel into carpet bombing the strip, and use the civilian casualties as leverage to get Israel to stop before the hostages are released. I think the problem was the operation was so incredibly brutal that it turned public opinion to Israel’s side, and hardened policy makers against negotiation.

1400 Israelis killed

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