Does the current situation count as not open warfare? In my opinion yes, if yes then I think Hamas should be at 80% since it's already been many months since the ceasefire

The U.S. announced the launch of “Phase Two” of President Donald Trump’s Gaza cease-fire plan on Wednesday, officially embarking on the “demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction” of the territory.

https://time.com/7346341/gaza-phase-two-ceasefire-committee-members-peace-board/

The first part of this option is now being fulfilled, the second part is for the situation to reach 6 months without open warfare.

@NathanpmYoung just checking if you plan ping us in this market whenever you have judged open warfare stopped?

What if years go by without ever having 6 months without warfare?

@AhronMaline Then the market doesn't resolve until that happens, I imagine?

@NathanpmYoung are you considering the possibility of percentual resolution to multiple options? or will you choose only one?

Apparently Israel will have partial control, behind the yellow line. Will that count even if there ends up being little population there?

Is PA the same as PLO?

@JimAusmanNot quite, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) authorizes and oversees the Palestinian Authority (PA)..

PLO is the political representative of Palestinians worldwide; PA governs local affairs in parts of the occupied territories.

PLO excludes Hamas and Islamic Jihad..

Funny how everything has reset. My profit stands on 0 again 😅

can you explain what do you mean by "control" ? i think you need to clearify that

I have no idea how Hamas has 21%

@ezra290 fix it then:)

@ezra290 they have been in control for over 15 years and are still now? I'd say 21% is low

arb:

How do you call the option where Hamas is nominally disbanded, but most of their people are still alive, and 6 months after warfare they rebranded into a "new" organization under a different name? Israel could claim victory that way, without having to actually kill enough Hamas people to truly destroy them, which would probably require a long and bloody occupation of Gaza. Does this fall under the "Hamas" option?

International peacekeeping force, Arab only peacekeeping force, and African peacekeeping force are not mutually exclusive. What will happen at resolution?

What does "control of Gaza" mean?

@xyz Yeah, what happens if Gaza becomes Area B? Resolves to 50/50 Israel and PA?

Netanyahu: Israel will have “overall security responsibility” for Gaza for “indefinite period” after war ends

Very good market!

I am refunding those who bought PLA shares

This market looks really interesting but I can't confidently interpret the grammar of the title

@Tumbles I'm pretty happy with it meaning something like "Who will be the next peacetime government of Gaza" where "peacetime" doesn't have to mean official peace, just the absence of "open warfare".

@Tumbles I take it to mean “conditional on there being 6 months without open warfare, who will control Gaza afterwards”? Referring obviously to the first six months without open warfare. Though the meaning of “open warfare” should be made more precise: to what extent do sporadic attacks count?