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MANIFOLD
Will there be another US government shutdown in 2026?
26
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Mar 19
Resolved
YES

The United States has a history of government shutdowns. Already in 2026 there has been one brief shutdown.

For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough government workers, and so would not count.

This question resolves YES if a second government shutdown involving furloughed workers happens on or between 1 Jan 2026 and 31 Dec 2026, and otherwise resolves NO when the year ends (midnight EST).

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@cash Should resolve YES, we've been in the 2nd shutdown for like a month lol. Many workers indeed have been furloughed, including 2/3rds of CISA employees according to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, TSA employees according to CBS, Coast Guard Security Center personall according to DHS.gov, and probably more, although the US gov doesn't seem big on specific numbers nowadays.

I don't know why this market dropped when the Feb 14 one resolved NO. This one specifically just requires "a second government shutdown involving furloughed workers," not some slow OPM website to update.

@Dssc Thanks! Resolving yes.