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MANIFOLD
How many days will the US government be shut down in 2026
18
Ṁ1.2kṀ5.6k
Jan 29
59 days
expected
4%
0 - 9
1.1%
10 - 19
0.4%
20 - 39
91%
40 - 79
3%
80 - 149
0.1%
150 - 299
0.1%
300+

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Does partial agency count

@spiderduckpig I don't know what that means!

@NivlacM Sry, like does this count days where there was part of the government shut down but not all of it

@spiderduckpig I would expect so? The government is always only part shut down when it's shut down. I was honestly hoping I could just resolve this to a clear consensus...

bought Ṁ50 YES

@NivlacM Okay, I bet up the area around 79 days a bit more because of the partial dhs shutdown. Is this a good source to use for the number of days? (House of representatives website)

https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/

Funding Gaps and Shutdowns in the Federal Government | US House of Representatives: History, Art & Archives
As required by the Constitution, all three branches of the federal government are funded through the appropriations process in the United States Congress. All federal spending bills originate in the House of Representatives, where they fall under the jurisdiction of the Committee on Appropriations. In 1865, the House moved the appropriations function away from the Ways and Means Committee, creating the Appropriations Committee to oversee the spending requirements of the Union’s war effort during the waning days of the Civil War. Since then, the obligations and responsibilities of the federal government have only grown. Because the appropriations process can be such a complicated task, the Appropriations Committee divides its work among 12 subcommittees, each of which is responsible for producing a bill that funds particular departments and areas of the government. Like any other bill, spending measures must pass both the House and Senate and be signed by the President to become law. Congress conducts the appropriations process annually, for each fiscal year beginning every October 1. If regular appropriations bills are not signed into law before the start of the new fiscal year, Congress can pass a continuing resolution, or CR, which provides temporary funding in the interim period before regular appropriations bills are passed. If a new fiscal year begins or a continuing resolution expires without Congress appropriating new funds, parts of the federal government can experience a lapse in funding. Prior to the 1980s, funding gaps did not typically have major effects on government operations. Government agencies would often continue to operate during a lapse in appropriations, with the expectation that funding would be provided in the future.1 In 1980 and 1981, however, United States Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti wrote a series of legal opinions that established the basis for government shutdowns. Civiletti called for a stricter interpretation of the Antideficiency Act, a longstanding law that prohibits government agencies from authorizing expenditures in excess of the amount Congress provided them by law. Ultimately, the Attorney General believed government agencies had no legal means to operate during a funding gap.2 Beginning with the appropriations process for fiscal year 1982, many subsequent funding gaps have resulted in a shutdown of affected agencies, in which day-to-day operations halt and employees are furloughed without pay. Eventually, federal officials carved out exemptions for government employees deemed “essential,” like military and law enforcement personnel involved in the protection of life and property.Funding Gaps Since 1977The table below lists funding gaps that have lasted for at least one full day.3 The "Shutdown Procedures Followed" column is marked "yes" if agencies were closed and their employees furloughed as a result of the funding gap. This chart includes both full and partial shutdowns, and this distinction is noted within the Fiscal Year column. Full shutdowns result from a failure to pass all twelve governmental appropriations bills; all other lapses in funding are considered to be partial. In some instances, funding gaps after 1980 had limited effects on government operations because the gaps were either too short or occurred over a weekend, meaning affected agencies did not begin shutdown procedures before Congress restored funding4

@spiderduckpig that does seem reasonable and matches the Wikipedia page for us government shutdowns. Do any @traders want to disagree with this source?