Resolution criteria

A US federal shutdown occurs when funding legislation required to finance the federal government is not enacted before the next fiscal year begins. This market resolves YES if any federal shutdown (full or partial) occurs during November 2026. A "full" shutdown occurs when none of the 12 annual appropriations are in force, while a "partial" shutdown occurs when only some bills have been enacted, so only unfunded departments and programs shut down. Resolution will be based on official announcements from Congress, the Office of Management and Budget, or major news outlets confirming a shutdown has begun. The market resolves NO if Congress passes and the President signs appropriations bills or a continuing resolution funding the government through November 30, 2026 without a lapse occurring.

Background

The last government shutdown lasted a record 43 days in October and November 2025, furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers and costing the US economy an estimated $11 billion. Congress wrapped up 11 annual appropriations bills that fund government agencies and programmes through September 30, 2026. The Department of Homeland Security is funded only through February 13, 2026, requiring lawmakers to negotiate further. The federal fiscal year ends September 30, meaning Congress must pass new appropriations or continuing resolutions before October 1 to avoid a shutdown. November 2026 falls within the fiscal year that began October 1, 2026.

Considerations

Government shutdowns are often resolved by Congress passing continuing resolutions, which provide short-term funding while negotiations continue. Every shutdown since 1990 has been ended with a continuing resolution. However, political polarization and disagreements over spending priorities have made shutdowns increasingly common in recent years.

This description was generated by AI.