This market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that a federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations begins after February 5, 2026, and on or before February 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
Definitions & Clarifications
A qualifying shutdown is one that:
Is explicitly attributed to a lapse in congressional appropriations, and
Results in one or more federal agencies entering shutdown status, including furloughs or suspension of non-essential operations.
Only shutdowns that begin after February 5, 2026 qualify.
Partial shutdowns qualify as shutdowns.
A shutdown counts regardless of duration, including same-day or overnight shutdowns.
A continuation, extension, or reclassification of any shutdown that began on or before February 5, 2026 does not qualify.
Office closures caused by holidays, weather, administrative decisions, cyber incidents, or other non-appropriations reasons do not qualify, even if agencies are closed.
A lapse in appropriations that occurs over a weekend or holiday qualifies only if OPM announces a shutdown status, not merely a funding gap.
Resolution Source
OPM Operating Status page:
https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
1,000