Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any part of the United States federal government shuts down due to a lapse in appropriations at any point before 12:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

A "shutdown" is defined as a formal cessation of non-essential government operations caused by the failure of Congress to pass, and the President to sign, necessary appropriations legislation (continuing resolutions or full-year budgets). Official confirmation from sources such as the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations or major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) confirming that federal agencies have initiated shutdown procedures will be used to resolve the market.

If a shutdown occurs but is resolved within the same day without a significant disruption to non-essential services, the market will still resolve YES if an official lapse in appropriations was acknowledged by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

Background

The U.S. federal government operates on a fiscal year beginning October 1. Funding lapses occur when Congress fails to enact the 12 required appropriations bills or a stopgap measure (Continuing Resolution) by the deadline.

Shutdowns are preceded by high-stakes negotiations between the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House. While stopgap measures are frequently used to extend deadlines, they do not constitute a shutdown. Because funding cycles are tied to specific dates, the likelihood of a shutdown often increases as deadlines approach during periods of divided government or political gridlock.

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