Another US government shutdown before February 14?

Question

This market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that a federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations begins after February 5, 2026, and on or before February 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

Definitions & Clarifications

A qualifying shutdown is one that:

Is explicitly attributed to a lapse in congressional appropriations, and

Results in one or more federal agencies entering shutdown status, including furloughs or suspension of non-essential operations.

Only shutdowns that begin after February 5, 2026 qualify.

Partial shutdowns qualify as shutdowns.

A shutdown counts regardless of duration, including same-day or overnight shutdowns.

A continuation, extension, or reclassification of any shutdown that began on or before February 5, 2026 does not qualify.

Office closures caused by holidays, weather, administrative decisions, cyber incidents, or other non-appropriations reasons do not qualify, even if agencies are closed.

A lapse in appropriations that occurs over a weekend or holiday qualifies only if OPM announces a shutdown status, not merely a funding gap.

Resolution Source

OPM Operating Status page:

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 15, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.