Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ12k
resolved Jan 30
Resolved
YES

Commercial airplanes nearly crashed 46 times in June 2023, according to NY Times reporting on FAA safety documents.

FAA hosts a public database of such incidents. Wikipedia lists fatal commercial aircraft accidents in the US.

an "airliner crash"

  • excludes non-commercial aviation, e.g. military, private jets, charter flights

  • only includes airliners; e.g. excludes helicopters, small planes

  • must involve a "crash," so excludes events like the 2022 Montgomery incident

  • Update 2025-22-01 (PST): - Public charter operators that sell seats to the public and operate flights in the normal manner are considered commercial aviation and are included in the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,846
2Ṁ436
3Ṁ287
4Ṁ193
5Ṁ91
Sort by:

What a horrible market to have to resolve Yes. 😢

@Haiku It is not good feeling for the news trading I feel too. 😢

An airliner crashed in DC, killing 64 people (BBC).

opened a 𝕊20.00 YES at 70% order

Not looking too good

Is PenAir Flight 3296 a "crash"?

@creator @Manifold Does a Part 380 public charter operator like JSX count? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JSX_(airline)

Legally, they sell seats to the public, and then "charter" a flight (from a company owned by the same parent company). The description gives "charter flights" as an example of non-commercial aviation which is excluded. But most people would consider this to be commercial.

@DanielTilkin At first glance this seems substantively to be commercial. Could I, a member of the public, get flown places on airliners run by this operator in like, the normal manner that I would for any other major airliner?

@cash You can go to https://www.jsx.com/home/search and book a trip. It doesn't show up in aggregators like google flights, orbitz, etc.

@DanielTilkin Great. Ya seems on balance to count, despite the lack of visibility on aggregators.

sweepified

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules