Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more?
12
closes 2026
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ82 +726.4%
New probability
13% +2%
Question created after watching this recent Wendover video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL57dSIXqBM
Dam Failure as defined in this Wiki Article
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
Will be resolved in to NO on 1st of January 2026 if no failures that meet criteria were observed.
Will be resolved to YES in case a reputable news source confirms a failure with fatality rates exceeding said treshold.
Might update description based on discussion.
FYI from the Wikipedia article it appears that the last dam failure meeting this criteria was in 1977 (Kelly Barnes Dam Georgia)
PS: read my bio wrt my bets on my own questions.
Get Ṁ500 play money
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