Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more?
18
1kṀ22032026
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Question created after watching this recent Wendover video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL57dSIXqBM
Dam Failure as defined in this Wiki Article
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
Will be resolved in to NO on 1st of January 2026 if no failures that meet criteria were observed.
Will be resolved to YES in case a reputable news source confirms a failure with fatality rates exceeding said treshold.
Might update description based on discussion.
FYI from the Wikipedia article it appears that the last dam failure meeting this criteria was in 1977 (Kelly Barnes Dam Georgia)
PS: read my bio wrt my bets on my own questions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?
39% chance
Will there be another major bridge collapse in the US by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?
78% chance
Will there be another plane crash in US airspace with >= 20 victims (fatalities) in 2025?
13% chance
Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?
36% chance
Will 10 or more US banks fail in 2025?
10% chance
Will a train derailment in the US cause evacuation of a municipality of more than 1000 people before 2025?
7% chance
Will the United States have more than 2,500,000 households without power before the end of 2025?
71% chance
Will Mosul Dam collapse before 2025-11-10?
5% chance
Will there be a US government shitdown before the end of 2025?
28% chance