Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more?
Plus
17
Ṁ11532026
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Question created after watching this recent Wendover video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL57dSIXqBM
Dam Failure as defined in this Wiki Article
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dam_failure
Will be resolved in to NO on 1st of January 2026 if no failures that meet criteria were observed.
Will be resolved to YES in case a reputable news source confirms a failure with fatality rates exceeding said treshold.
Might update description based on discussion.
FYI from the Wikipedia article it appears that the last dam failure meeting this criteria was in 1977 (Kelly Barnes Dam Georgia)
PS: read my bio wrt my bets on my own questions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities in the US in 2024?
24% chance
Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
49% chance
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?
77% chance
Will there be any catastrophic cascading natural disasters in 2023 or 2024?
21% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?
12% chance
Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?
35% chance
Will there be another major bridge collapse in the US by the end of 2025?
91% chance
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
13% chance
Will a train derailment in the US cause evacuation of a municipality of more than 1000 people before 2025?
12% chance