Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?

Commercial airplanes nearly crashed 46 times in June 2023, according to NY Times reporting on FAA safety documents.

FAA hosts a public database of such incidents. Wikipedia lists fatal commercial aircraft accidents in the US.

an "airliner crash"

  • excludes non-commercial aviation, e.g. military, private jets, charter flights

  • only includes airliners; e.g. excludes helicopters, small planes

  • must involve a "crash," so excludes events like the 2022 Montgomery incident

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Will fatal crashes that are a result of illegal actions count? eg. 9/11, 2018 Horizon Air crash

@cowgoesmoo Yes. I don't see why not.


Airliners, especially Boeing, have had some bad news lately. Luckily so far, nothing fatal. A Boeing 737 went off the runway yesterday. The day before that, a tire fell off a United Airlines flight during takeoff. A few days before that another United Airlines engine shot flames out the back midair. This all happening on the back of Boeing's January incident, when a Boeing plane door blew open.

Just realized there was a fourth incident this last week. Another United flight had a hydraulic failure.

@cash Some slightly tangential news on the boeing front https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68534703 "Boeing whistleblower found dead in US"

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3 qualifying incidents since 2010:

  1. Pen Air 3296

  2. Southwest 1380

  3. Asiana Airlines 214

@SamSwoap Southwest 1380 should not count as a "crash"

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