MANIFOLD
What will be the top 10 grossing films in the US in 2025?
75
Ṁ2.1kṀ71k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
A Minecraft Movie
Resolved
YES
Lilo & Stitch
Resolved
YES
Superman
Resolved
YES
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Resolved
YES
Fantastic Four
Resolved
YES
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Resolved
YES
Zootopia 2
Resolved
YES
How to Train Your Dragon
Resolved
YES
Wicked: For Good
Resolved
YES
Sinners
Resolved
NO
Captain America: Brave New World
Resolved
NO
Paddington in Peru
Resolved
NO
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
Resolved
NO
Thunderbolts*
Resolved
NO
Snow White
Resolved
NO
Ballerina
Resolved
NO
Smurfs
Resolved
NO
Tron: Ares
Resolved
NO
F1 The Movie

This question resolves YES to the ten named films that are among Box Office Mojo's top 10 grossing films (using calendar gross) for 2025 when I check it on 1 Jan 2026. This question will not resolve to untitled films or temporary titles.

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am I really crazy for thinking avatar shouldn't be able to crack it with just a week in 2025? idk maybe it will make it

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 86% order

@No_uh currently it's scheduled for a release that would be the last two weeks of 2025, including two weekends. Avatar 2 made 400m for #4 of the year in 2022, on the same schedule.

@gamedev yeah after i made my comment i went to wikipedia and looked it up. i was surprised! i may be overexposed here lol

@No_uh Don't feel badly, I have been wrong on almost all my calls on this market so far lol

If a movie is no longer playing in theaters and has fallen out of the top ten highest-grossing films, does the movie itself resolve to NO?

bought Ṁ5 YES

@BlitzEver I imagine yes - presumably it's top 10 over the full year

@BlitzEver Isar is correct. I check this in December and look at the top 10 grossing films of the calendar year. So a movie falling out of the top 10 by that time for 2025 will resolve NO.

@cash Therefore a movie already outside the top 10, which is no longer in the theatres (e.g., Paddington in Peru), can be resolved before the market closing date.

@BlitzEver Mechanically I set this up to resolve everything on 1 Jan 2026, per description "when I check it on 1 Jan 2026", which I intend to keep to, both for ease of running the question, and also because I don't want to create a rule (e.g. resolve when films are out of threatres) that causes problems in the future if there is an edge case.

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