This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if France's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2024) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If France's democracy score for 2023 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2023:
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Had a look at The Economist's Democracy Index 2023. France's score is 8.07. In 2022, it was also 8.07, so that means France did not become more authoritarian. Resolved NO.
What will happen in 2024?
@Maniuser I'm not the market owner but I'm curious on whether it actually changes anything for the existing platers. i.e. isn't your outcome determined when you place the bet, no matter what other people bet after you?
@gpt4 It doesn't matter if you just hold shares (the typical way of betting), but it has negative effect for people that had limit orders (argument being that one might be willing to provide liquidity when the outcome is uncertain, not for trading on the news). It also mixes true forecast and news trading (you can get a lot of mana betting on "sure things" that have already happened, which is not distinguished from profit of actual predictions) .
The argument of the other side would be, news trading incentivize correct pricing as fast as possible, which is the goal of prediction markets, and that people with limit order can set expiry date (if the date is known), and also know what they are getting into.
@gpt4 like @camille said, it creates a different set of incentives. Realtime pricing is helpful for fast moving, real-time events--maybe election, sports, etc. But even then, in most of these cases going directly to the news source is more informative and doesn't require additional filtering from prediction markets. But for binary events that's highly dependent on one data point in time (publication), the RT pricing doesn't do much, since it will get resolved anyways shortly after. That's why many such markets have a cut off date to prevent such mechanism.
It's the set of what I consider perverse incentives that I'm against. In many ways, it becomes much easier to hunt for news than to make accurate predictions. And it also penalizes players who don't have time to be glued to the news but want to make LT predictions. It also incentivizes players who bet on their own markets to make news-dependent questions for outsized profits.
There's already a huge perverse incentive with the question creation process. Add this to the mix, then this site becomes much more of a news-hunting, ask-popular-derivative-questions platform than one about prediction and analysis.
@CamillePerrin would it be useful if markets had an optional "default limit order expiration" set to before the info will become public, which limit traders could use more conveniently than doing that additional research and setting themselves over and over?