If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Question

This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.

If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.

May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-will-she-appoint-ano)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (122 traders, as of May 1, 2026).