When will Google's Gemini model be released? (Quarterly buckets)
79
2K
2.4K
resolved Dec 6
100%99.4%
2023 Q4
0.0%
2023 Q3
0.5%
2024 Q1
0.0%
2024 Q2
0.0%
2024 Q3
0.0%
2024 Q4
0.0%
Never Released/Not Released by 2025

Resolves to the quarter in which the model could reasonably described as being released. Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.

Map of what events qualify to resolve this market to the current quarter:
Released to the public? YES
Open Beta? YES
Paid but otherwire open service? YES
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen? YES
Leaked weights that are useless? NO
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? YES
Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users? YES
Closed Beta with no proof of user number? NO
Closed Beta with <10,000 users? NO
Limited researcher only release? NO

Map of what events immediately resolve to Never Released:
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? NO
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction? YES
Project cancelled? YES
Not released by 2025? YES
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks? YES

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Unlike the other market, this one says "Resolves to the quarter in which the model could reasonably described as being released". I think the quarter during which Ultra is released might be a more reasonable choice

OTOH, maybe Pro could be characterized as an "Open Beta" version of Ultra, in which case it would be reasonable to resolve it like this

@JonasVollmer i think it should have resolved N/A, i don't like the way the question author has decided to resolve this question against the spirit of how a bunch of people were interpreting it

bought Ṁ10 of 2023 Q4 NO

The issue is that this is only a partial release. According to Google, Gemini contains Gemini Pro, Gemini Ultra, and Gemini Nano. Only Gemini Pro was released today and others aren't expected until 2024. So the resolution of this market is ambiguous because "release" doesn't specify whether that's a full or partial release.

@Jacy Yeah, I personally was reading the question as "Google's most advanced model that aims to beat GPT-4", and was predicting NO based on thinking that the safety checking would take longer—which is indeed the reason why Ultra isn't released now. It seems that Ultra is probably the thing that everyone has been waiting for, not Pro (though I haven't experimented with it a lot yet).

I wonder how others read the question?

bought Ṁ50 of 2023 Q4 YES