When will Google's Gemini model be released? (Quarterly buckets)
35
closes 2025
2023 Q3
9%
2023 Q4
80%
2024 Q1
6%
2024 Q2
1.5%
2024 Q3
0.9%
2024 Q4
0.8%
Never Released/Not Released by 2025
1.0%

Resolves to the quarter in which the model could reasonably described as being released. Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.

Map of what events qualify to resolve this market to the current quarter:
Released to the public? YES
Open Beta? YES
Paid but otherwire open service? YES
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen? YES
Leaked weights that are useless? NO
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? YES
Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users? YES
Closed Beta with no proof of user number? NO
Closed Beta with <10,000 users? NO
Limited researcher only release? NO

Map of what events immediately resolve to Never Released:
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released? NO
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction? YES
Project cancelled? YES
Not released by 2025? YES
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks? YES

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JSD avatar
JSDbought Ṁ50 of 2023 Q4 YES