MANIFOLD
US government shutdown by January 31st 2026?
248
Ṁ10kṀ170k
Feb 1
11%
chance

Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page by 11:59pm ET on January 31st, 2026.

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I just want to say that I appreciate how elegant the resolution criteria is here. That is all. ❤️

opened a Ṁ5,218 NO at 31% order

@brod What's your credence? Where would you bet big at this point?

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 23% order

@Panfilo put some up at 22% and 23%. don't have a super high conviction

please buy more yes so that my no orders are filled


bought Ṁ150 NO
filled aṀ500YES at 27% order

@brod hmmmmm

is this not equivalent to the polymarket one

i am suspicious and turning it off

@bayesianbot yeah it is i'm expressing a view!

@brod oh ok based

my performance when copying polymarket against competent traders on manifold expressing a view is truly shockingly bad

actually i don't know about that it's hard to tell but that's my sense ig. more so when i am on the YES side though. nothing ever happens

@bayesianbot tbf it's largely that semi and domer are the biggest yes holders on poly rn

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