Okay, I N/A'ed this market.

Ummm... I guess I thought I had been clear with my criteria and comment but apparently the ambiguity of "by" was confusing to traders.

Don't want to screw over ppl who were buying yes shares at 95%, and profiting off them either (since I am trading on this market).

Market remade here:

https://manifold.markets/bens/us-government-shutdown-on-october-1?r=YmVucw

Added note to title to stop people from mistakenly trading on this one when they are trying to trade on the Feb shutdown markets.

@bens Seems like it would be most clear to just change it to "US government shutdown on October 1st 2026"

@HenryR I was duplicating the wording of the previous shutdown market that used these criteria by Brad. The market criteria were unchanged and I hoped to avoid confusion by not changing the title either. Unfortunately, it looks like this made it more confusing, lol.

@bens I think the source of confusion is that Brad's market was made at a time where the government was funded until that date, so a shutdown "on" vs a shutdown "by" meant the same thing (it wasn't possible for there to be a shutdown any earlier), but the government has not been funded up until the end of September, so a shutdown "on" vs a shutdown "by" October 1st do not mean the same things. Obviously the description's specificity is definitive, but I still think it would be a good idea to change the title for clarity.

@bens Wait I'm re-reading the description and it seems pretty unambiguous that this market should resolve YES if there is a shutdown at any point between now and October 1st. It's very well-established that using "by" means that the event just has to occur between the market creation and the end date, not on the specific end date. You wrote "Resolves YES iff the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal government shutdown (including a partial shutdown) due to a lapse in appropriations on the operating status page ***by*** 11:59pm ET on October 1st, 2026."

Feel free to put the market description into any LLM and ask what it thinks for an unbiased assessment. I'm pretty certain if this market was on any sort of regulated exchange it would resolve YES for any shutdown between the market's creation date and 11:59pm ET 10/01/2026. Might be a good idea to N/A since that definitely wasn't your intent.

@HenryR also the very first comment, from 8 days ago when I made this market:

I feel like that should have been pretty obvious!

Also, the "by 11:59" preludes "on October 1st". It can happen by any time but only on that day.

@bens Well I was certainly fooled by both the title and description. If you just removed the use of the word 'by' I think this would be quite a bit clearer.

This does not resolve YES if there is a shutdown in February.

@bens I'm fucking stupid. Ty anyways

ARE NONE OF YOU READING THE MARKET DESCRIPTION?

Who cares about the DHS partial shutdown. This is the next REAL shutdown. Let's get trading.