This market has multiple outcomes. It will resolve based on the 

 of a qualifying U.S. federal government shutdown, counted 

A qualifying shutdown is defined as having:

 as shutdowns. Office closures due to holidays, weather, or other non-appropriations-related reasons do 

Resolution Deadline (No-Shutdown Handling)

no qualifying shutdown begins by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT

The primary resolution source will be OPM’s Operating Status page, supplemented by other official U.S. government sources and a consensus of credible reporting if needed.