This market has multiple outcomes. It will resolve based on the total length (in calendar days) of a qualifying U.S. federal government shutdown, counted inclusive of the start and end dates.

Qualifying Shutdown

A qualifying shutdown is defined as having:

• Begun on the calendar date when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations.

• Ended on the calendar date when the funding legislation required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted into law. Announcements of an impending reopening do not qualify.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns. Office closures due to holidays, weather, or other non-appropriations-related reasons do not qualify.

Day Count Method

• Count calendar days (not business days).

• Day 1 is the calendar date the shutdown begins.

• The final day is the calendar date the shutdown ends.

• The shutdown length equals the number of calendar dates from start to end, inclusive.

Outcome Resolution

Exactly one outcome will resolve to YES, based on the total shutdown length:

• 0–4 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 calendar days. (0 days includes the case where no qualifying shutdown occurs.)

• 5–9 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 5–9 calendar days.

• 10–14 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 10–14 calendar days.

• 15–19 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 15–19 calendar days.

• 20–29 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 20–29 calendar days.

• 30–39 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 30–39 calendar days.

• 40–49 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 40–49 calendar days.

• 50–60 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 50–60 calendar days.

• Above 60 resolves YES if the shutdown lasts 61+ calendar days.

All other outcomes resolve to NO.

Resolution Deadline (No-Shutdown Handling)

If no qualifying shutdown begins by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the market will resolve with 0–4 = YES and all other outcomes = NO.

Resolution Sources

The primary resolution source will be OPM’s Operating Status page, supplemented by other official U.S. government sources and a consensus of credible reporting if needed.