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The NJ election is on the 4th too, not sure where the 5th in the description comes from.

@HenryRodgers thanks fixed

Using robinhood odds we get 0.91 X 0.85 X 0.98 = 76% id assume mamdani is quite independent but the other should be quite correlated.

even if we assume each of the 3 events individually have 80% chance of happening, doesn't that mean the combined probability should be

0.8*0.8*0.8=51.2%

so this market is trading too high, right? (it's 77% now)

@Hakari Zohran is most certainly >0.8 and also that assumes all events are independent/not correlated

@copiumarc maybe this is a hot take but I don't think they're really all that correlated. Non-zero of course but IMO <0.5 corr (just my subjective opinion, could be totally wrong).

@Hakari That's totally possible (and you would be betting proxying for "these events aren't very correlated" kind of), but is a different sort of statement that "given these individual probabilities, the combined probability is," which assumes no correlation

@copiumarc fair

@Hakari The distinction might be kind of meaningless but I would certainly call this causally linked at least, maybe the results are not directly correlated per se, but the reasons for each being particularly special are very similar. e.g., discontent might be caused for very different reasons, but the manifested result of it (swinging political positions) might have the same outcome, if only because American political structures sort of smush all possible positions into an icky binary

So if you Bayes this with even sorta guesswork A|B probability it comes out to pretty much where it's at right now. A more conservative estimate is about where it was when you first made the comment

Since Spanberger seems like a lock, I would say personally if any of A, B, or C is a win, it improves the chances of A and B also being wins, in so many words

Like if we go by polymarket odds right now, it's like a 90% for mamdani to win. If spanberger wins then it probably is more like 95%+. If she somehow loses, then mamdani is probably a coin flip.

Even considering that coin flip possibility, it's still a 94%+

@Hakari At the moment, Manifold rates these as 0.96, 0.94, and 0.91 respectively.