This market asks whether an AI-focused company will reach a valuation of $1 trillion USD or more before January 1, 2027. The market resolves YES if a qualifying AI company is publicly reported to have a valuation of at least $1 trillion through a completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction or market valuation before the deadline. Otherwise, it resolves NO. The company must have AI as a core part of its business, rather than merely being a company that uses AI. Valuation claims should be supported by reputable financial or news sources. Useful references include CompaniesMarketCap and Reuters.
Resolution date: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ71 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
People are also trading
@eapache On the yahoo finance page, I did some research and their page is writing based off a specialized .PVT meaning that they use a ticker suffix to track private market valuations before a company actually lists on a public stock exchange.
Anthropic remains a private company, despite the price data and headlines appearing on Yahoo Finance. The figures shown on the platform track transactions on the private secondary market, not a public stock exchange.
@boring The market description requires “a completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction”. Funding rounds and acquisitions are also typically private transactions. I believe the link I posted qualifies as an “other verifiable transaction”.
If the market meant to ask whether a company would have a public valuation that is a very different question.
@eapache I think the distinction between public and private is beside the point under the actual market description. It explicitly says “completed funding round, acquisition, IPO, or other verifiable transaction or market valuation” — it does not require the company to be publicly listed.
The question is therefore whether the reported Anthropic secondary-market transactions constitute a verifiable market valuation of ≥$1T. Yahoo is reporting secondary-market transactions implying a ~$1.2T valuation, so I think that falls within “other verifiable transaction or market valuation.”
If the intended criterion was specifically a public valuation / public-market cap, the description would need to say that. As written, I don't see a public-listing requirement.
Yahoo is reporting secondary-market transactions implying a ~$1.2T valuation, so I think that falls within “other verifiable transaction or market valuation.”
Isn’t that enough to cause the market to resolve YES then?
@eapache I agree that the wording doesn't explicitly require the company to be publicly listed, so I don't think “Anthropic is private” by itself settles the issue.
However, I don't think the Yahoo article alone is sufficient to resolve YES either. It describes a $1.2T implied valuation based on secondary-market share prices, and specifically notes that completed transactions at that price are rare because of the scarcity of sellers.
For me to lock this YES, I'd want more credible and independent sources confirming that a completed/verifiable transaction actually established a valuation of $1.2T+, rather than just an implied valuation based on quoted secondary-market prices.
Anthropic's own most recent primary funding round was $965B post-money, so the $1.2T figure is specifically coming from the secondary market rather than a company-announced financing round.
So I'm not saying secondary-market valuations can never qualify under the wording. I'm saying one report of an implied valuation isn't enough evidence for me to resolve the market. If we can get multiple credible sources independently confirming actual transactions at $1.2T+, I'm happy to reconsider.