Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI reaches a valuation of $1.00 trillion (USD) or more at any point before January 1, 2028 (measured in UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

The valuation will be determined based on the following rules depending on OpenAI's corporate status:

1. If OpenAI is a private company:

   • The valuation must be established by an official primary funding round, a company-sponsored tender offer, or an official transaction/funding event reported by credible financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times) or announced directly by OpenAI.

   • Non-company-sponsored secondary market trading estimates (such as general platform indicators on Forge Global, Hiive, or Nasdaq Private Market's composite marks) will not suffice for a YES resolution unless they represent an officially completed and company-backed transaction/tender round valuing the company at $1.00 trillion or more.

2. If OpenAI undergoes a public listing (IPO, Direct Listing, SPAC, etc.):

   • The market capitalization of OpenAI (or the entity representing the bulk of its business post-listing) must reach $1.00 trillion (USD) or more.

   • Market capitalization is calculated as the closing share price multiplied by the total outstanding shares.

   • A YES resolution is triggered if the market capitalization at the close of any trading day prior to January 1, 2028 is at or above $1.00 trillion (USD) on a major regulated stock exchange (such as NASDAQ or NYSE).

Other Conditions:

• If there are conflicting reports about the exact valuation of a private funding round, the creator will use a consensus of major financial publications.

• If OpenAI has not completed a qualifying transaction or public market close at or above $1.00 trillion USD by December 31, 2027, 23:59 UTC, this market resolves to NO.

Background

• Valuation History: In March 2026, OpenAI closed a historic funding round raising $122 billion, which valued the company at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. This was a substantial increase from its $157 billion private valuation in October 2024 and its ~$100 billion valuation in early 2024.

• IPO Outlook: In September 2026, CEO Sam Altman confirmed that OpenAI would delay its widely anticipated initial public offering (IPO) until at least 2027 to focus on AI safety and alignment. Internal discussions and reports indicate that Altman has strongly pushed advisers to target a valuation of at least $1 trillion for its public market debut.