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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ23
Dec 31
59%
chance

Resolves YES if: OpenAI common stock begins trading on a public exchange on or before December 31, 2026, AND its market capitalization at the close of its first full trading day is ≥ $1.00 trillion USD.

Terms:

Resolves NO if trading has not begun by Dec 31, 2026 (delay, withdrawal, or acquisition all count as NO). This is deliberate — the market prices both timing risk and valuation.

Market cap = first-day closing price × total shares outstanding as reported by at least two of: Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or the exchange itself. If outlets split on basic vs. diluted share count, use basic shares outstanding per the final prospectus.

Direct listing counts the same as a traditional IPO. A listing of a parent/successor entity counts if it’s the primary vehicle for OpenAI’s business.

First-day close means the regular-session close, ignoring after-hours.

Market context
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