Will there be a piracy incident near Somalia before 2025?
12
97
250
2025
71%
chance

Only counting piracy incidents after market creation, but before 2025. I will not count "suspicious vessel" incidents that don't involve any attempted attack.

Generally counting all piracy incidents within 500km of Somali land.

Resolution source: Piracy incident map from International Maritime Bureau

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There are currently no incidents on that website which fit resolution criteria.

There is a hijacking incident where the hijacked ship was eventually brought to Somalia by the hijackers, but it happened too far from the Somali coast.

I checked, and as of right now, there are no incidents on that website which fit resolution criteria.

There is one here, but it's 800km away from Somali coast.

predicts YES

The Houthis are defintely active in regions that count for this question. 60 nmi North of the Bab al-Mandab Strait is quite close to Somali land! This is a cruise missile attack, not a piracy incident, but I think risks of missile attacks and piracy probably go together.

See also:

/Anovak/will-the-houthi-rebels-successfully

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/12/12/Houthi-missile-hits-Norwegian-flagged-tanker-off-Yemen-coast

bought Ṁ35 of YES

@EvanDaniel Seems to be around 900km away from Somalia though...

predicts YES

@bohaska I don't think so! That's just the last reported position. It had its tracker turned off. I think it happened about here, which means it might or might not have been in range:

@EvanDaniel Yea, that falls within range.

I suppose no one has any significant problems if an incident happened but the resolution source doesn't show it?

predicts YES

@bohaska I am generally in favor of strict readings of resolution criteria. A few days to see if it shows up won't hurt anything. But it is your market and your decision.

I'm also not at all sure that that's exactly where it happened! There are places that fit the description in the articles I saw that are outside the range required by this market.

@EvanDaniel I'll wait for more info

@EvanDaniel Approximate 500km distance from Somalia