Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?

The ship must not be decommissioned but must be actively in service. The perpetrator could be a state’s navy, a special operations unit, a terrorist organization, or a lone terrorist. “Sunk” means that the ship is rendered unseaworthy and at least 50% of its above-water superstructure is submerged.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2027, a cruise ship is sunk by a state military force, a terrorist organization, or a lone actor.

For the purpose of this market:

• Cruise ship is defined as a vessel primarily used for civilian passenger transportation and leisure cruising that is actively in service (not decommissioned or in a scrapyard) at the time of the event.

• Sunk is defined as the vessel being rendered unseaworthy with at least 50% of its above-water superstructure submerged.

• Perpetrator includes any state’s navy, special operations unit, non-state terrorist organization, or lone-wolf terrorist actor.

If multiple reliable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, CNN) report the sinking and verify the cause, the market will resolve based on that consensus. If an event is disputed, the market will resolve when a preponderance of evidence, provided by independent international maritime authorities or reputable investigative reporting, confirms the sinking fits these criteria.

Background

Modern cruise ships operate under strict International Maritime Organization (IMO) security regulations, primarily the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, which mandates security plans and officer designations for all commercial vessels. While cruise ships have historically been targets for high-profile threats and hijackings (such as the 1985 Achille Lauro hijacking), the total loss of a modern, large-scale cruise ship due to a deliberate military or terrorist attack remains an extremely rare event in maritime history. Recent geopolitical tensions in major shipping lanes, such as the Red Sea, have increased focus on the vulnerability of civilian vessels to state-aligned proxies and anti-ship weaponry, though targeting of civilian passenger ships would constitute a major escalation in international conflict.