Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a new military or commercial blockade is formally declared and effectively enforced in international waters by any sovereign state or internationally recognized entity at any point before June 1, 2026.

For the purposes of this market:

• Blockade is defined as a belligerent operation intended to prevent vessels or aircraft of other nations from entering or exiting a specified area. To count, it must satisfy the requirements of international law, including formal declaration, notification to neutral states, and effective, continuous, and impartial enforcement by sufficient military force.

• International waters refers to areas beyond the territorial sea of any state.

• This market excludes routine embargoes, sanctions, individual vessel interdictions, or exclusion/warning zones that do not meet the criteria of a formal, effective, and continuous blockade.

• The event must be confirmed by reputable international news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, or major national newspapers).

If no such blockade is established by 11:59 PM UTC on May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

In international law, a blockade is a distinct act of war, differing from economic sanctions or trade embargoes, which are generally non-military in nature. Traditionally, a blockade requires the blockading power to possess the naval or air force necessary to effectively prevent ingress and egress from a defined maritime area. A "paper blockade"—one that is declared but not effectively enforced—is generally considered invalid under customary international law and the principles established by the 1856 Declaration of Paris and the 1909 London Declaration. Because the definition of a blockade involves complex legal and military interpretations, users should rely on clear reporting of a formally declared and effectively maintained military operation when assessing this market.

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