China tends to block many western AIs, such as ChatGPT and Claude, which are not available without a VPN in China.

Claude is not available in China, but that's mostly a restriction imposed by Anthropic, not because of the Great Firewall, and https://www.anthropic.com is accessible in China.

Will China block it indefinitely, or will they leave it unblocked?

Temporary bans, such as those temporary wide-ranging bans on foreign websites on National's Day or other sensitive dates, will not count towards resolution. Anthropic must be blocked for more than 7 days. I may reopen or reresolve this market if it is later known that Anthropic was only temporarily blocked for reasons not specific to Anthropic.

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Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.