Will China announced a similar project to Stargate which will build out computing infrastructure for AI on a massive scale. For this to resolve YES the Chinese government needs to publicly announce the project and it needs to be of the same order of magnitude either in cost or planned capacity.
Since this might be ending up somewhat subjective I'll not participate in this market
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regardless of funding source, if the CCP makes an announcement of a comparable project, it resolves YES.
If private companies announce a similar project and no statement or note from the CCP is made within a week, it resolves NO.
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Project Scope: The project must be a single AI moonshot. Building chips is necessary but not sufficient unless for a single project (e.g., millions of drones forming a single entity).
Order of Magnitude: Defined based on raw exchange rate, not purchasing power parity. A project costing $50 billion or more directly translated qualifies as a YES.
1,000
3.00Could you clarify whether it needs to be government funding? Because Stargate is fully privately funded, and Chinese companies might do the same without Chinese government announcing it. And since China doesn't have strictly enforced building rules, the Chinese private sector doesn't need the regulatory assistance that US companies need
@Siebe Great and tricky point! I personally believe that ultimately any initiative at this scale in China will only happen with CCP approval. However, as the title says "Chinese government announce", let's stick to that. Regardless who funds it, if it's of comparable scale and the CCP makes an announcement of it, it resolves YES, if private companies announce it and no statement o note from the CCP is made about it within a week, it resolves NO. I'll rely on comments here to help make sure no announcement is missed, but will also search for it myself.
Does that sound reasonable?
@AlexanderTheGreater One of China’s major bottlenecks is chip production, and in particular the upstream tools that go into that. (E.g. EUV)
They’ve previously established major programmes to fund chip production: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Integrated_Circuit_Industry_Investment_Fund
Does that sort of thing count?
Also, for the funding to be comparable, what are you taking into account? Are you using purchasing power parity?
@OP chip production: the project has to be a single AI moonshot. Building massive amounts of chips is a necessary input but not sufficient. Even if the chips were built for AI it's n insufficient unless it's for a single project. Building chips to power millions of advanced, autonomous drones for example wouldn't count either unless the drones made up a single entity.
PPP: no, I'll take the raw exchange rate, but to account for economic or other potential differences, I defined it as within the same order of magnitude. So if it's $50 billion or more directly translated its a YES. I hope that is more than generous enough to account for PPP.