Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China successfully kidnaps or captures Taiwan's president (currently Lai Ching-te) at any point during 2026. Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news sources confirming the capture. The market resolves NO if the year ends without such an event occurring.

Background

U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3, 2026, sparking discussion about whether China might follow suit with Taiwan. The operation sparked widespread discussion on Chinese social media, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on Weibo, and Chinese social media users are arguing that Beijing should adopt Trump's methods and apply them to Taiwan.

However, expert consensus suggests this is unlikely. Analysts say China is unlikely to change its Taiwan strategy after the arrest of Venezuela's Maduro, despite renewed claims of Washington's double standards. China has refrained from attacking Taiwan not because it lacks global permission, but because it is simply not ready, with one Taiwan lawmaker stating "China has never lacked hostile intent toward Taiwan; what it truly lacks is the ability to carry it out".

Considerations

While the prospect of capturing Taiwan's leader may have stoked nationalist fever online, officially Beijing has adopted a markedly different tone, portraying the US raid as a "hegemonic act". While Xi reiterated that reunification is "unstoppable," the context was not one of imminent fiery conquest, but of cool, historical inevitability. The US move against Venezuela is unlikely to have "any direct and fundamental impact" on China's calculation over a potential invasion of Taiwan, with factors determining Beijing's timeline boiling down to China's domestic economic situation, the People's Liberation Army's capabilities, Taiwan's domestic political situation, and Washington's policy toward Taiwan.